Rapid urbanization is propelling growth across emerging markets and shifting the world’s economic balance toward the east and south. By 2025, it will create a “consumer class” with more than four billion people, up from a billion in 1990. Nearly half will live in the emerging world’s cities, which are set to inject almost $25 trillion into the global economy. Yet business leaders mostly ignore them. To learn about 440 largely obscure urban areas that will account for close to 50 percent of expected global GDP growth between 2010 and 2025.
South-east Asia’s economic growth will return to a “robust” pre-crisis average of 5.5% over the next five years, according to the OECD’s latest forecasts.
The Paris-based thinktank forecasts China’s economic growth will average 8.3% over the next five years, compared with 10.5% during the pre-crisis period from 2000-07. India’s growth is forecast to slow to 6.4% from 7.1%.
The south-east Asian countries of Brunei, Burma (Myanmar), Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam will be insulated by a continuing shift to domestic demand, rather than exports, as the main driver of economic growth, the report said.
“Domestic demand growth, and particularly private consumption and investment, will be the main drivers of growth in most Asean countries. Growth will be less reliant on net exports than in the past. The expansion of the middle class is likely to continue to boost domestic demand,” said
deputy secretary general Rintaro Tamaki.
The region’s “remarkable” expansion of the middle class has boosted spending on education and health as well as durable goods such as cars and household appliances.
Source: The Guardian
Source: OECD medium-term projection framework (MPF)